State of Affairs Monday October 29, 2007

Where should I begin?:
Ironically the only comfortable and convenient place to watch the final 3 games of the 2007 ALCS was amongst many Redsox fans and a few indifferent bystanders.  As nearly all members of this group agreed when discussing various issues of disparate importance to the game, I began to realize that there must be much truth in our casual musings.  I mean who could deny the validity of a statement agreed upon by fans from Cleveland, Boston, and New York.  These will be studied and expanded throughout the course of the next couple weeks.  Some of the topics include the DH, umpiring, and the talent disparities within the game...

The Redsox WIN!:

First off I'd like to congratulate Boston on another World Series win.  It comes as no surprise that the Sox won the Series and only a slight surprise that the Rockies weren't able to sneak away with a game.  The fact that the talent level of the NL is so far below that of the AL was exhibited this past week.  Just eight days after dismantling basically the best that the NL had, the Rockies were dismantled by basically the best the AL has.  There is no need for further proof that the NL is currently inferior to the AL and this is to a large degree irrelevant, but I will go into that in more detail in the coming days.  Beyond that, the large success of the recent Boston Redsox is in large part due to the efforts of one Theo Epstein.  Epstein has created an unusual model for the development of his teams over the past few years and I intend to define and examine this model in a multipart article in the coming weeks.

Do to a lack of time on my part and a lack of relevance in the world of sports I neglected to post on Saturday and will begin posting only once or twice a week with longer and more independent articles....

State of Affairs Wednesday October 24, 2007

Talk about Parody:
On the eve of a huge BCS matchup between #2 BC and #8 VT let's take at college football's current landscape. In case you have forgotten this college football season has again proved why we play the games. Of the ESPN/USA Today's top ten only 4 teams, LSU, OU, VT, and WVU, are currently in the BCS top ten. Of the teams currently in the BCS top ten, 5 teams, BC, KU, USF, ASU, and Oregon, began this season unranked. We all should have this coming when perennial powerhouse and National Championship contender Michigan lost opening week to 1-AA Appalachian State. Each of the currently undefeated teams have tough roads to remain that way with Kansas and BC having the easiest. ASU and O$U each have teams ranked 2-5 within their respective conferences. With that being said it is almost certain that the season will end without any meaningful undefeated teams. That leaves teams like LSU, Oregon, and VT in the driver's seat along with O$U to duke it out for the right to play for the National Championship. If there has ever been a year where a playoff system of some sort would make sense it would be this one. One of the best teams in the country already has two losses, Florida and the team atop the rankings,O$U has a average rank* of 82. So who knows what this will all look like when the dust settles, but one things is for sure there will be plenty to talk about...

Rockies Sox, World Series '07 Preview:
With game one of the Series to be played tonight in Fenway Park, I thought it appropriate to take at the 2007 World Series, noticeably missing the Tribe. For the Rockies the last month has been a whirl wind ride. Winning 21 of their last 22 games the Rockies surged from the middle of the NL West into the World Series. This momentum will likely have dwindled by the Josh Beckett throws out the first pitch of the Series around 8:20 Eastern. With an 8 day layover since sweeping the Diamondbacks look for the Rockies to be a bit rusty and come back to earth, at least for a game or two. The Redsox have had a much different fate this past month. Having clinched a playoff spot fairly quickly Boston coasted into the playoffs and proceeded to win 4 straight games including a sweep of LAA and a huge game 1 win over the Indians. They lost the next three and were forced to fight for their lives and win three elimination games in a row to claim a place in the Fall Classic. People will say that once a giant such as the Redsox has been awaken they are unstoppable. Since they were tested they are now ready and prepared to take what is rightly theirs namely a World Series, according to some. However, I have been witness to many occasions where the beast hits the snooze and continues to sleep until it is too late. Most notably the Uconn Huskies in the 2006 NCAA tournament. They were given increasing trouble by Albany, Kentucky, and Washington until they finally lost to George Mason in the Elite 8. So, which story will shape the 2007 Series, let's take a deeper look...
On the surface the teams have produced incredibly similarly on the offensive end with just 7 being the separation of runs scored and of points in OPS. Some would argue that the Coors field park factor, and weak NL would cause the Rockies to have inflated numbers here. But with the consideration of the pitcher vs. the DH it seems to me that all these extra factors basically even out and I feel safe in saying that the Sox and Rockies have similar offenses on the average. As far as the other half of the position players, fielding, I also believe the teams are fairly similar. From what I know and have seen of each team, they are both effective defensively and both teams do a very good job in the field across the board. This leaves the last 50% of the game, pitching. The Redsox have a dominant advantage in this respect. The Redsox have today's best big game pitcher, Beckett, and yesterday's best big game pitcher, Schilling, along with one of the game's best bullpens. What about the Rockies you ask, not so much. Its not that the pitching of the Rockies is bad its that it isn't anything. It lacks the experience and frontend quality of the Redsox staff and although some of this can be attributed to Coors, the Sox also pitch must better away from home.
With that being said, let's check out the game by game matchups. Game one features Beckett and the lefty Jeff Francis at Fenway. Boston lead the league in OBP against lefties this season and this will only spell disaster for the Rockies as Boston rarely waists its base runners. This combined with the fact that the game is in Boston, that Colorado hasn't played in a week, and O did I mention that they have to face Josh Beckett, will lead to a 1-0 for the Redsox. Game 2 also in Fenway features Schilling and Ubaldo Jimenez. This is similar to ALCS games two and 6 featuring Schilling and Fausto. With that being said the nod again goes to Boston because of the home field and Jimenez' extreme lack of ML experience (hes only been up since August). Now back in Colorado for game three. This is where the tide will turn. With Boston forced to either leave Papi out of the lineup or have him play 1B and leave off Youkilis, the Rockies will have a chance to steal a game and make this a series. With an ERA over 7 since September 1 and a lack of success on the road at times this season look for the Rockies to capitalize on Daisuke and rely on the lack of DH to aid Josh Fogg's pitching to 2-1 series deficit. Regardless of whether the Rockies can must back-to-back wins and tie the series at 2 after game 4, 2 games will be enough for the Sox to figure out Coors and the NL rules and will go back to Boston with a 3-2 series lead on the back of ace Josh Beckett. The rest is all just a formality as one of the games best playoff pitcher's ever will seal the deal at Fenway in game 6 if they haven't won it already. The Rockies will come close but in the end Boston's superior pitching will be decide the series in favor of the Sox in 6 games.

Next post: Saturday I will outline some of the games flaws and what can be done to fix them....

*=http://www.dolphinsim.com/~andy/ncaa_fb/

State of Affairs Monday October 22, 2007

How 'bout those Pats:
The New England Patriots remained undefeated going to 7-0 on Sunday against the lowly Dolphins. This comes as a surprise to no one as the Dolphins are now 0-7 after a 41-21 loss to my Cleveland Browns followed up by a 49-28 drubbing by the one of the leagues best. The final score is absolutely insulting to Belichick's Pats who lead 42-7 at the half. Tom Brady upped his season touchdown total to 27 still with 6 more TD tosses. Brady is now only 1 TD shy of his career high of 28. With nine games left to play he is on pace for 63 TD passes, 15 more than Peyton Manning's record 48 TDs. With Pittsburgh and Indianapolis the only two real playoff teams left on the schedule, the Patriots are in a position to remain undefeated when this regular season is all said and done. With not only the number one rated overall offense, the Patriots also command the number two overall rated defense. This balance matched with their experience and impressive coaching, the rest of the NFL will have a very tough time catching them off guard. With that being said I feel the best chance for the winning streak to be broken is week 14 against the Steelers. The Steelers D might just be the answer to the elite offensive attack lead by Brady, Moss, and Maroney. But keep in mind, no one in this league can handle, let alone beat, the Pats when they are clicking, or even, dare I say almost clicking.

The Next Step:
After witnessing a 3-1 lead in the ALCS evaporate over the course of the last 5 days I cannot help but still be optimistic about the Indians season and more obviously their future. The 2007 Indians campaign was all but a disappointment. After only 78 wins a year ago, the Tribe stormed back to form with 96 wins, a division crown, and a game 7 in the ALCS. All of this was done amidst a career low year from Hafner whose career OPS .950 is 7 points higher than David Ortiz' .943 career mark. Not to mention the fact that Cliff Lee who went 32-16 with an era just over 4 the last two years was only able to muster a 5-8 record while posting an era north of 6. Beyond that the Indians also played most of the season without their #2 starter from years past Jake Westbrooke, free agent LF David Delucci, and free agent RP Aaron Fultz due to injuries. So, yes I am disappointed that we blew a 3-1 lead in the ALCS, but when you realize we got their without 60% of our starting rotation from April and with mere average numbers from one of the games best sluggers, I declare success.
The next logical question is where do we go from here. The next step must be to improve the two worst things about the club, defense and relief pitching. These flaws became quite evident in the waning innings of game seven as a one run game got blown wide open due to a lack of quality defense and an off night from Raffy right. To that end I suggest moving multiple players around the diamond. First is Jhonny to third. Defensively Peralta has above average hands and arm but below average range for a SS. This toolset SCREAMS 3B. Not only would his defense improve with a move to third but his offensive numbers would increase do to a lessened demand of his body in the field. Next is Rudy to SS. If his dazzling performance at 2B throughout the playoffs isn't enough to invoke comparisons to Omar Vizquel, maybe the fact that they share a home country in Venezuela, a number in 13, and a first team in Seattle. Cabrera has the potential to be an elite defensive SS and one that has the ability to change games. Barfield would then get his spot back at 2B. His defense is good at 2B and with an improved approach should too become a more productive hitter. Finally Blake would become Gutz' platoon partner in relief of Nixon and the teams defense, speed and versatility are greatly increased. The rotation will likely remain the same with Byrd the only exception as he is likely to be grant fee agency. This leaves CC, Fausto and Westbrooke at the top and Lee, Sowers, and Miller fighting for the final two rotation slots. The other off season issue is the pen. With Peralta established at 3b this would leave room for Marte to be traded for another backend arm. The additions of Lewis, Raffy left have solidified the middle innings but the Tribe could still use another closer type pitcher to aid Raffy right and JoBlow. I do not expect to see the Indians to make any outside moves but look for some subtle changes from within similar to the ones outlined above. With little work this team will be contending for the World Series again in '08.

Next post: My World Series preview and a look at college football before the huge BC/VT game...

State of Affairs Saturday October 20, 2007

Joe Torre is out in NY:
Ten days after the Yankees were unceremoniously ousted from the American League playoffs, Joe Torre too was unceremoniously ousted from his job with the New York Yankees. Why this is a huge story I am not completely certain. It could have had something to do with the black hole that was Friday October 19 in the world of sports. But even so there is absolutely no reason for ESPN to be airing a 65 yes 65 minute press conference by Torre early Friday afternoon. This story has had two weeks to develop and diffuse since Steinbrenner made the ridiculous comment after game 2 that Torre wouldn't have a job if he didn't win the series against the Indians. The whole world with the exception of Torre knew this was coming and no one should be surprised, not even Torre. Which makes it even more unbelievable that Torre was so bitter and angry at having been low balled. LOW BALLED?! He was offered a contract that was guaranteed to be $1.5 million more than the next highest paid manager and included incentives to be $3 million dollars richer. Granted it was a one year deal but still either Torre wanted to be with the Yankees and would have taken the offer or he didn't want to return with the evil empire and is no worse off now that he is on the open market. As far as a replacement is concerned the logical options are former Yankees Mattingly and Girardi. Girardi has the objective edge in that he has at least some managerial experience, however Mattingly has the edge as far as the Yankees are concerned to do his reputation as a Yankee and the fact that he is already employed by the Yankees as their bench coach. Now I have also heard rumblings of La Russa being a possibility in New York. This is almost ridiculous as the Cardinals have already fired Jocketty their GM which was a symbolic measure to back La Russa the manager. Beyond that their is no way La Russa could work with Steinbrenner even a little bit. It seems as logical a time as any with the inevitable roster turnover this off season for the Yankees to begin fresh with a new manager.

A-rod Sweepstakes:
Everyday it appears more and more that A-rod will opt to become a free agent at the conclusion of the world series. Being that his agent is Scott Boras this should not surprise anyone. What's more it seems unlikely that A-rod will re-sign with the Yankees for two important reasons. First, and most obvious, is that the Yankees will have some roster turnover with Posada and Rivera also free agents and with the overall old age of the roster. Now is a perfect time for A-rod to find another team after another lackluster playoff performance and with the recent firing of Torre. Secondly the Yankees would take more of a financial hit then simply the increase in money from about $28 million a year to whatever A-rod commands as the Rangers are still currently paying about a third of A-rod's annual salary and that would go away if a new contract were negotiated. The two most logical teams to go after A-rod are the Angels and the Redsox. These are two of the select few teams that will be able to afford him and each team is in desperate need of a SS with the elite tools of A-rod. According to his agent Scott Boras, A-rod will play well into his forties and has no desire to change teams again. This leads me to conclude that A-rod could command somewhere along the lines of a MONSTROUS 10 year $350 million deal. Finally for those Redsox fans out there that don't want A-rod because of the failed deal that allowed him to instead go to the Yankees 4 years ago I provide this example. In 2000 3 years after the retiring of the GREAT Dean Smith his great assistant Bill Guthridge too retired leaving a huge vacancy at the helm of the Tar Heels. Rumors flew about Roy Williams former Smith assistant and hall of fame head coach taken over the Heels. He however turned down the job and the Heels were forced to hire their second choice up and coming coach Matt Doherty. Doherty led the Heels to their first and only 20 loss season in their historic history. One year later Doherty 'left' the Heels, almost like Torre just 'left' the Yankees, and Williams took over. As a diehard Heels fan I can say that I was in a similar position to Redsox fans are currently with A-rod. Now after 3 20 win and 2 30 win seasons and a National Championship in 4 years all has been forgiven of Roy. With that being said A-rod would push the Redsox over the top and quickly make up for the time he missed with the Sox as a member of the Yankees.

Tribe leads Sox 3-2 in ALCS:
Thats more than enough about the evil empire now to the real story in MLB, the ALCS. The series with the exception of game 2 every game in the series has been a blow out. Beckett dominated games 1 and 5 while CC pitched like he has in his career up until this season. In games 3 and 4 the Redsox were over matched by underwhelming starters Westbrooke and Byrd. The two arms that will cover game 7 if we get there. Now as a preview for game 6 we see Schilling going head to head with Fausto Carmona. Carmona blew 4 saves in 4 days last season as the closer for the Indians in Fenway Park. Now back in Fenway for the second time this season look for Fausto to return to form and really command this game 6. Schilling on the other hand has not pitched well lately, but is still one of the best playoff starters in the history of the game. Look for more of a pitchers duel and for the Tribe to squeak out a 5-3 victory on the back of yet another quality start by big Fausto Carmona.

Next post: Look for lots of football talk on Monday.....