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Monday, November 12, 2007

State of Affairs Monday November 12, 2007

A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Words:
The ML general managers recently voted 25-5 in favor of the limited use of instant replay to decide close calls.  Each of these reviewable calls are related to home runs such as whether the ball was fair or foul, whether a fan interfered or whether it hit on the other side of the fence or not.  As far as this goes for those who are interested in seeing more spread use, due to the continual nature of the game and the need for instant and irreversible calls it would be difficult to expand much more than this.  This is why it seems strange to me to go through all of this effort.  Not only are these close calls few and far between they are rarely missed by umpires.  If anything should be questioned in the current game with respect to umpiring it should be balls and strikes.  According to rules of baseball managers aren't allowed to argue balls and strikes.  Even so these constant calls are still a hotbed of debate within almost every single game.  It was most noticeable to me during the playoffs when umpires routinely missed a large percentage of calls by a significant margin.  Yes, most of these games included the team I call my own, but as those whom I watched these games with can attest to, these calls were bad no matter who you root for.  As a side note, the umpires missed these calls regardless of what FoxTrax has to say.  Fox put together that horribly scaled system to make everything look like a bad call in order to incite controversy and keep people watching.  Now with many stadiums already having Questech installed monitoring umpires it would not be a huge stretch to being letting a computerized system call balls and strikes completely.  For those who agree with this proposal more power to you, but I have to say we are few and far between.  Many "purists" that I have spoken to concerning this issue have professed many qualms most nearly adding to "but I don wanna."  However, as a far minded individual I will present and counter a number of arguments against my proposed system.  
First is the idea that this system will erase the dynamic of the unique strike zones between umpires.  This is certainly not the case.  A computer could be programmed with many varying strike zones to mock the zones currently called by ML umpires.  This system would in no way set a strict uniform strike zone for every game until the end of time.  Now you say, if there will be different strike zones, why even use a computer system.  One word: consistency.  The reason that an umpire is bad or is calling a bad game is usually not because he is making bad calls on where the ball is entering the strike zone.  It is usually to do a change within the strike zone and a change in which types of pitches are called strikes and which are not.  Most baseball players and managers would agree that as long as the ump is calling them within reason they can adjust to any strike zone provided it is consistently called that way.  Thus, a computer would allow for a huge increase of consistency within the calling of balls and strikes within the context of a single game.  Next, comes to the malfunctioning of the system.  This would be treated in the same way as if any of the other umpires were to get hurt and not be able to continue.  The backup umpire would be summoned onto the field and the game would proceed just as it does now.  Ironically this argument does not seem to satisfy those against this idea.  Thus, no matter how you slice it a computer system to call the balls and strikes would greatly increase the quality of the game and remove a great deal of doubt and animosity.  So if this is where the game is heading as far as the proposals for limited use of instant replay then I am all in favor, otherwise, perhaps we are wasting out time here.....

Monday, October 29, 2007

State of Affairs Monday October 29, 2007

Where should I begin?:
Ironically the only comfortable and convenient place to watch the final 3 games of the 2007 ALCS was amongst many Redsox fans and a few indifferent bystanders.  As nearly all members of this group agreed when discussing various issues of disparate importance to the game, I began to realize that there must be much truth in our casual musings.  I mean who could deny the validity of a statement agreed upon by fans from Cleveland, Boston, and New York.  These will be studied and expanded throughout the course of the next couple weeks.  Some of the topics include the DH, umpiring, and the talent disparities within the game...
The Redsox WIN!:
First off I'd like to congratulate Boston on another World Series win.  It comes as no surprise that the Sox won the Series and only a slight surprise that the Rockies weren't able to sneak away with a game.  The fact that the talent level of the NL is so far below that of the AL was exhibited this past week.  Just eight days after dismantling basically the best that the NL had, the Rockies were dismantled by basically the best the AL has.  There is no need for further proof that the NL is currently inferior to the AL and this is to a large degree irrelevant, but I will go into that in more detail in the coming days.  Beyond that, the large success of the recent Boston Redsox is in large part due to the efforts of one Theo Epstein.  Epstein has created an unusual model for the development of his teams over the past few years and I intend to define and examine this model in a multipart article in the coming weeks.

Do to a lack of time on my part and a lack of relevance in the world of sports I neglected to post on Saturday and will begin posting only once or twice a week with longer and more independent articles....

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

State of Affairs Wednesday October 24, 2007

Talk about Parody:
On the eve of a huge BCS matchup between #2 BC and #8 VT let's take at college football's current landscape. In case you have forgotten this college football season has again proved why we play the games. Of the ESPN/USA Today's top ten only 4 teams, LSU, OU, VT, and WVU, are currently in the BCS top ten. Of the teams currently in the BCS top ten, 5 teams, BC, KU, USF, ASU, and Oregon, began this season unranked. We all should have this coming when perennial powerhouse and National Championship contender Michigan lost opening week to 1-AA Appalachian State. Each of the currently undefeated teams have tough roads to remain that way with Kansas and BC having the easiest. ASU and O$U each have teams ranked 2-5 within their respective conferences. With that being said it is almost certain that the season will end without any meaningful undefeated teams. That leaves teams like LSU, Oregon, and VT in the driver's seat along with O$U to duke it out for the right to play for the National Championship. If there has ever been a year where a playoff system of some sort would make sense it would be this one. One of the best teams in the country already has two losses, Florida and the team atop the rankings,O$U has a average rank* of 82. So who knows what this will all look like when the dust settles, but one things is for sure there will be plenty to talk about...

Rockies Sox, World Series '07 Preview:
With game one of the Series to be played tonight in Fenway Park, I thought it appropriate to take at the 2007 World Series, noticeably missing the Tribe. For the Rockies the last month has been a whirl wind ride. Winning 21 of their last 22 games the Rockies surged from the middle of the NL West into the World Series. This momentum will likely have dwindled by the Josh Beckett throws out the first pitch of the Series around 8:20 Eastern. With an 8 day layover since sweeping the Diamondbacks look for the Rockies to be a bit rusty and come back to earth, at least for a game or two. The Redsox have had a much different fate this past month. Having clinched a playoff spot fairly quickly Boston coasted into the playoffs and proceeded to win 4 straight games including a sweep of LAA and a huge game 1 win over the Indians. They lost the next three and were forced to fight for their lives and win three elimination games in a row to claim a place in the Fall Classic. People will say that once a giant such as the Redsox has been awaken they are unstoppable. Since they were tested they are now ready and prepared to take what is rightly theirs namely a World Series, according to some. However, I have been witness to many occasions where the beast hits the snooze and continues to sleep until it is too late. Most notably the Uconn Huskies in the 2006 NCAA tournament. They were given increasing trouble by Albany, Kentucky, and Washington until they finally lost to George Mason in the Elite 8. So, which story will shape the 2007 Series, let's take a deeper look...
On the surface the teams have produced incredibly similarly on the offensive end with just 7 being the separation of runs scored and of points in OPS. Some would argue that the Coors field park factor, and weak NL would cause the Rockies to have inflated numbers here. But with the consideration of the pitcher vs. the DH it seems to me that all these extra factors basically even out and I feel safe in saying that the Sox and Rockies have similar offenses on the average. As far as the other half of the position players, fielding, I also believe the teams are fairly similar. From what I know and have seen of each team, they are both effective defensively and both teams do a very good job in the field across the board. This leaves the last 50% of the game, pitching. The Redsox have a dominant advantage in this respect. The Redsox have today's best big game pitcher, Beckett, and yesterday's best big game pitcher, Schilling, along with one of the game's best bullpens. What about the Rockies you ask, not so much. Its not that the pitching of the Rockies is bad its that it isn't anything. It lacks the experience and frontend quality of the Redsox staff and although some of this can be attributed to Coors, the Sox also pitch must better away from home.
With that being said, let's check out the game by game matchups. Game one features Beckett and the lefty Jeff Francis at Fenway. Boston lead the league in OBP against lefties this season and this will only spell disaster for the Rockies as Boston rarely waists its base runners. This combined with the fact that the game is in Boston, that Colorado hasn't played in a week, and O did I mention that they have to face Josh Beckett, will lead to a 1-0 for the Redsox. Game 2 also in Fenway features Schilling and Ubaldo Jimenez. This is similar to ALCS games two and 6 featuring Schilling and Fausto. With that being said the nod again goes to Boston because of the home field and Jimenez' extreme lack of ML experience (hes only been up since August). Now back in Colorado for game three. This is where the tide will turn. With Boston forced to either leave Papi out of the lineup or have him play 1B and leave off Youkilis, the Rockies will have a chance to steal a game and make this a series. With an ERA over 7 since September 1 and a lack of success on the road at times this season look for the Rockies to capitalize on Daisuke and rely on the lack of DH to aid Josh Fogg's pitching to 2-1 series deficit. Regardless of whether the Rockies can must back-to-back wins and tie the series at 2 after game 4, 2 games will be enough for the Sox to figure out Coors and the NL rules and will go back to Boston with a 3-2 series lead on the back of ace Josh Beckett. The rest is all just a formality as one of the games best playoff pitcher's ever will seal the deal at Fenway in game 6 if they haven't won it already. The Rockies will come close but in the end Boston's superior pitching will be decide the series in favor of the Sox in 6 games.

Next post: Saturday I will outline some of the games flaws and what can be done to fix them....

*=http://www.dolphinsim.com/~andy/ncaa_fb/

Monday, October 22, 2007

State of Affairs Monday October 22, 2007

How 'bout those Pats:
The New England Patriots remained undefeated going to 7-0 on Sunday against the lowly Dolphins. This comes as a surprise to no one as the Dolphins are now 0-7 after a 41-21 loss to my Cleveland Browns followed up by a 49-28 drubbing by the one of the leagues best. The final score is absolutely insulting to Belichick's Pats who lead 42-7 at the half. Tom Brady upped his season touchdown total to 27 still with 6 more TD tosses. Brady is now only 1 TD shy of his career high of 28. With nine games left to play he is on pace for 63 TD passes, 15 more than Peyton Manning's record 48 TDs. With Pittsburgh and Indianapolis the only two real playoff teams left on the schedule, the Patriots are in a position to remain undefeated when this regular season is all said and done. With not only the number one rated overall offense, the Patriots also command the number two overall rated defense. This balance matched with their experience and impressive coaching, the rest of the NFL will have a very tough time catching them off guard. With that being said I feel the best chance for the winning streak to be broken is week 14 against the Steelers. The Steelers D might just be the answer to the elite offensive attack lead by Brady, Moss, and Maroney. But keep in mind, no one in this league can handle, let alone beat, the Pats when they are clicking, or even, dare I say almost clicking.

The Next Step:
After witnessing a 3-1 lead in the ALCS evaporate over the course of the last 5 days I cannot help but still be optimistic about the Indians season and more obviously their future. The 2007 Indians campaign was all but a disappointment. After only 78 wins a year ago, the Tribe stormed back to form with 96 wins, a division crown, and a game 7 in the ALCS. All of this was done amidst a career low year from Hafner whose career OPS .950 is 7 points higher than David Ortiz' .943 career mark. Not to mention the fact that Cliff Lee who went 32-16 with an era just over 4 the last two years was only able to muster a 5-8 record while posting an era north of 6. Beyond that the Indians also played most of the season without their #2 starter from years past Jake Westbrooke, free agent LF David Delucci, and free agent RP Aaron Fultz due to injuries. So, yes I am disappointed that we blew a 3-1 lead in the ALCS, but when you realize we got their without 60% of our starting rotation from April and with mere average numbers from one of the games best sluggers, I declare success.
The next logical question is where do we go from here. The next step must be to improve the two worst things about the club, defense and relief pitching. These flaws became quite evident in the waning innings of game seven as a one run game got blown wide open due to a lack of quality defense and an off night from Raffy right. To that end I suggest moving multiple players around the diamond. First is Jhonny to third. Defensively Peralta has above average hands and arm but below average range for a SS. This toolset SCREAMS 3B. Not only would his defense improve with a move to third but his offensive numbers would increase do to a lessened demand of his body in the field. Next is Rudy to SS. If his dazzling performance at 2B throughout the playoffs isn't enough to invoke comparisons to Omar Vizquel, maybe the fact that they share a home country in Venezuela, a number in 13, and a first team in Seattle. Cabrera has the potential to be an elite defensive SS and one that has the ability to change games. Barfield would then get his spot back at 2B. His defense is good at 2B and with an improved approach should too become a more productive hitter. Finally Blake would become Gutz' platoon partner in relief of Nixon and the teams defense, speed and versatility are greatly increased. The rotation will likely remain the same with Byrd the only exception as he is likely to be grant fee agency. This leaves CC, Fausto and Westbrooke at the top and Lee, Sowers, and Miller fighting for the final two rotation slots. The other off season issue is the pen. With Peralta established at 3b this would leave room for Marte to be traded for another backend arm. The additions of Lewis, Raffy left have solidified the middle innings but the Tribe could still use another closer type pitcher to aid Raffy right and JoBlow. I do not expect to see the Indians to make any outside moves but look for some subtle changes from within similar to the ones outlined above. With little work this team will be contending for the World Series again in '08.

Next post: My World Series preview and a look at college football before the huge BC/VT game...

Saturday, October 20, 2007

State of Affairs Saturday October 20, 2007

Joe Torre is out in NY:
Ten days after the Yankees were unceremoniously ousted from the American League playoffs, Joe Torre too was unceremoniously ousted from his job with the New York Yankees. Why this is a huge story I am not completely certain. It could have had something to do with the black hole that was Friday October 19 in the world of sports. But even so there is absolutely no reason for ESPN to be airing a 65 yes 65 minute press conference by Torre early Friday afternoon. This story has had two weeks to develop and diffuse since Steinbrenner made the ridiculous comment after game 2 that Torre wouldn't have a job if he didn't win the series against the Indians. The whole world with the exception of Torre knew this was coming and no one should be surprised, not even Torre. Which makes it even more unbelievable that Torre was so bitter and angry at having been low balled. LOW BALLED?! He was offered a contract that was guaranteed to be $1.5 million more than the next highest paid manager and included incentives to be $3 million dollars richer. Granted it was a one year deal but still either Torre wanted to be with the Yankees and would have taken the offer or he didn't want to return with the evil empire and is no worse off now that he is on the open market. As far as a replacement is concerned the logical options are former Yankees Mattingly and Girardi. Girardi has the objective edge in that he has at least some managerial experience, however Mattingly has the edge as far as the Yankees are concerned to do his reputation as a Yankee and the fact that he is already employed by the Yankees as their bench coach. Now I have also heard rumblings of La Russa being a possibility in New York. This is almost ridiculous as the Cardinals have already fired Jocketty their GM which was a symbolic measure to back La Russa the manager. Beyond that their is no way La Russa could work with Steinbrenner even a little bit. It seems as logical a time as any with the inevitable roster turnover this off season for the Yankees to begin fresh with a new manager.

A-rod Sweepstakes:
Everyday it appears more and more that A-rod will opt to become a free agent at the conclusion of the world series. Being that his agent is Scott Boras this should not surprise anyone. What's more it seems unlikely that A-rod will re-sign with the Yankees for two important reasons. First, and most obvious, is that the Yankees will have some roster turnover with Posada and Rivera also free agents and with the overall old age of the roster. Now is a perfect time for A-rod to find another team after another lackluster playoff performance and with the recent firing of Torre. Secondly the Yankees would take more of a financial hit then simply the increase in money from about $28 million a year to whatever A-rod commands as the Rangers are still currently paying about a third of A-rod's annual salary and that would go away if a new contract were negotiated. The two most logical teams to go after A-rod are the Angels and the Redsox. These are two of the select few teams that will be able to afford him and each team is in desperate need of a SS with the elite tools of A-rod. According to his agent Scott Boras, A-rod will play well into his forties and has no desire to change teams again. This leads me to conclude that A-rod could command somewhere along the lines of a MONSTROUS 10 year $350 million deal. Finally for those Redsox fans out there that don't want A-rod because of the failed deal that allowed him to instead go to the Yankees 4 years ago I provide this example. In 2000 3 years after the retiring of the GREAT Dean Smith his great assistant Bill Guthridge too retired leaving a huge vacancy at the helm of the Tar Heels. Rumors flew about Roy Williams former Smith assistant and hall of fame head coach taken over the Heels. He however turned down the job and the Heels were forced to hire their second choice up and coming coach Matt Doherty. Doherty led the Heels to their first and only 20 loss season in their historic history. One year later Doherty 'left' the Heels, almost like Torre just 'left' the Yankees, and Williams took over. As a diehard Heels fan I can say that I was in a similar position to Redsox fans are currently with A-rod. Now after 3 20 win and 2 30 win seasons and a National Championship in 4 years all has been forgiven of Roy. With that being said A-rod would push the Redsox over the top and quickly make up for the time he missed with the Sox as a member of the Yankees.

Tribe leads Sox 3-2 in ALCS:
Thats more than enough about the evil empire now to the real story in MLB, the ALCS. The series with the exception of game 2 every game in the series has been a blow out. Beckett dominated games 1 and 5 while CC pitched like he has in his career up until this season. In games 3 and 4 the Redsox were over matched by underwhelming starters Westbrooke and Byrd. The two arms that will cover game 7 if we get there. Now as a preview for game 6 we see Schilling going head to head with Fausto Carmona. Carmona blew 4 saves in 4 days last season as the closer for the Indians in Fenway Park. Now back in Fenway for the second time this season look for Fausto to return to form and really command this game 6. Schilling on the other hand has not pitched well lately, but is still one of the best playoff starters in the history of the game. Look for more of a pitchers duel and for the Tribe to squeak out a 5-3 victory on the back of yet another quality start by big Fausto Carmona.

Next post: Look for lots of football talk on Monday.....

Monday, September 10, 2007

The Numbers Don't Lie

The Numbers Don't Lie will be a weekly shootout between two of the games similar or maybe even rival players. The first edition will be a shootout between two players that began their careers as rivals as two of the top SS in the game. Now these two are teammates and make up one of the best offensive tandems of any infield's right side in baseball. The offensive dominance of these two is unchallanged although different types of hitters each has been one of the best baseball has seen in the last decade. So the subject of this article is not a showdown between Jeter and A Rod's offense, but of their defense. I know that I am not alone in saying that I felt Jeter should have moved to 2B or 3B when A Rod came to town instead of A Rod moving to third. With that being said lets set the scene and take a look at the numbers.

Once George Steinbrenner had managed to manafacture a deal for the game's highest paid player the only thing left was to find a place for him in the field. Now first off this is not the least bit surprising to see from Steinbrenner who constantly adds the most expensive and sometimes talented players availiable with little regard to the makeup of his club. You might be thinking, wait a second?, isn't Brian Cashman calling the shots from a baseball operations perspective? Techinically you would be right, but we all know George always gets his way. Anyway, back to matter at hand, where does A-rod fit in. Well his natural position is SS, however the "face of the Yankees", whatever that means, Deter Jeter already holds down the fort at short. It is learned early on in any introductory economics course that people are believed to act rationally. A rational individual would tend to gather all possible information and analyze, if only crudely, each of the possible outcomes of the decision and their consequences. This was simply not the case in the Yankees front office after A-rod was acquired.

Since this was neglected at the time I will attempted to due justice to the defensive comparison of Jeter and A-rod by making use of the great work of John Dewan in his book The Fielding Bible. The sample space for this showdown will be from 2003, A Rod's last year in Texas, and 2005, his second year as the Yankees 3B. From a scouting perspective when analyzing Derek Jeter one is inclined to see an above average athlete with great hands, an average arm, and significantly below average range. This perception is backed up by Dewan's stats that show that during our sample space Jeter made 80 plays less than expected when the ball was hit to one side or the other and made 11 more plays than expected when hit right at him. These numbers yield a total of 79 plays less than were expected of an average SS, ranking him as the 30th starting SS in the Majors. Lets turn our attention to A-rod. In 2003, his only year as a SS in our sample, he made 11 more plays in total than was expected and ranked 5th that year among starting SSs.

As an aside in 2004 and 2005 Jeter won the gold glove award at SS in the AL. He was ranked by Dewan system to be the 31st overall starting SS each year, EXCUSE ME!!!

So again I ask why not move the middle infielder with limited range to 3B and keep one of the MLs best defenders at SS?

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Who Are You?!

This is going to become a weekly post devoted to those in the world of sports and the world in general that make us say Who Are You?!

C. Vivian Stringer, the head women's basketball coach at Rutgers, appeared on ESPN First Take this morning and was interviewed regarding the two recent developments in the Don Imus/Rutgers womens basketball debacle. First that Imus finally reached a settlement with CBS and now is allowed to seek work with another broadcasting company and second that Rutgers leading scorer from this past season, Kia Vaughn has filed a law suit against Imus for the comments he made on April 4, 2007. In response to Imus' settlement and future employment opportunities Stringer said "everyone deserves an opportunity to work...We didn't really call for his firing, I think that was more of society and of the sponsors and that. We really sought to define who we were and resented the kind of things and remarks he said of us and the team." This seems to say that her teams seemingly overreacting to a joke made in bad taste had nothing to do with the amount of coverage and consequences that followed. If Imus had attacked the team in a Michael Richards like manner by violently and repeatedly disparaging the team this would be completely different. I also believe that if Stringer and the team truly are trying not to this less define them as a team and as a program the reaction and media attention would be different as well. This is shown through her own words when she explains "you can compete everyday and practice however many hours and put forth all of this and then in a matter of 54 seconds it can all be wiped away." Although my favorite sounds bite of the interview is when Stringer explains to all of us that "the cameras and attention is turned toward that which gathers attention." Not only is this funny because it is so weird, obvious, and useless a statement , but because one reaction to the negativity from others determines the amount of attention that that negativity will garner. And while I certainly believe that Imus was clearly in the wrong, the Rutgers team seems highly hypocritical in their handling of this terrible occurrence.

Barry Bonds today has hired a group of lawyers in an effort to crack down on private citizens making unsubstantiated claims against his him. Such as those who believe that he took steriods or those who think he committed tax evasion, or the slim few who profess he has cheated on his wife. Now I have absolutely no idea how much or if any of this is true, but I mean come on Barry how exactly do you expect this to stop people from bad mouthing you. Every time he seems to make a strong claim he always backs down. First, he says I am going to play until I am 100 and now its through next season. Then he was gonna sue the authors of Game of Shadows then he backed off of that. Barry, along with everyone else, just needs to RELAX. He should move to the AL and continue mashing for a couple more seasons and fade off into the sunset and out of fans minds for years to come much McGwire and even Canseco until recently.

Pacman Jones makes the cut do to his continual off the field antics. From my experience when people get into large amounts of trouble they tend to feel remorse and attempt to distance themselves from the wrong they have committed. This is not the case with Pacman Jones. After being suspended for the entire 2007 season he has decided to start a career as a professional wrestler which has since been disallowed by as he is still a member of the Titans and they have control over his athletic career. Now, instead of continually refuting the claims held against him and continually keeping his name at the top of the headlines by continuing his antics, Jones should take a sabbatical and go on a nice vacation. He should stay hidden for the next couple months and when he comes back he should profess how he has changed and how he is ready to comeback and turn around his career. Of course this will never happen, but then again decisions like this are always easier from the sidelines.

The Cleveland Indians have one of the worst records in the AL since the all-star break at
13-18 and have lost there last 4 games. Not to mention they are now 1 game back of Detroit in the division and 2 games back of Seattle in the wild card. However, it is not that they are losing that bothers me so much and why they are nominated this week, but it is their response to this struggle. In yesterdays Columbus dispatch both Wedge and Shapiro made frightening comments regarding the struggling Indians. Shapiro explained that "to play meaningful games at this point is an honor" and Wedge backed that up by saying that "we can't let our chins and pout about it." These comments make it sound like the Indians do not expect to win and that they are content to be in the position that they are in currently. Now this is a sign of scary things to come as the team no longer has the swagger and confidence that is necessary of a playoff team and World Series contender. At least the team is headed in the right direction by dropping Grady to the 3 hole and leading off Lofton, although it will take much more than changing the batting order to overturn the run of failure experienced by the Indians of late.

With all that said what do you think? Who is most deserving of this prestigious award?

The Best

Everyone has his favorite everything. Every fan their favorite team, player, and coach both of the present and of the past. Whether its a favorite brand, company, or style everyone will go to war for what he sees as the absolute best. I have many favorites. In college basketball they presently are the Tarheels, Wayne Ellington, and Roy Williams. In professional sports the Lebrons, I mean Cavaliers, Browns, and most obviously the tribe. When considering the profession that I someday hope to hold I also have my favorites. Some of these favorites include Kevin Towers, John Schuerholz, and Omar Minaya. However, just like every other fan on the planet among my favorites is a clearcut and dominating best.

Dave Dombrowski, the current GM/president/CEO of the rival Detroit Tigers, has demonstrated the ability to effectively put together winning teams using his aggressive approach for three different organizations. In fact, during my lifetime the only winning that the former Expos, the Marlins, and the Tigers have experienced came with Dombrowski at the helm.

Everyone speaks of how great the Expos were in 1993 and how they would have won it all had the 1994 season not been cut short. But how many of the fans know how the Expos got to be that way. Of all of the impact players for the Expos in 1993 on 3B Sean Berry(who) and 5th SP Denis Boucher(again who) were not acquired by Dombrowski. In 1994, the only player added to that list is Pedro Martinez acquired in 1993. So outside of one of the lower quality position players and a middle rotation starter each year Dombrowski completely assembled the successful Expos of the mid 1990's.

Then in 1992 the expansion Marlins came knocking and Dombrowski began his second great challenge. Within 5 years, mainly through the help of free agent talent and trades, Dombrowski was able to claim his first World Series title in 1997. This one was especially painful as this was the tribe's series to win and they let it get away. Dombrowski barely had enough time to cherish the World Championship as ownership mandated he clear much of the teams payroll. This was a daunting task, but Dombrowski was able to successfully move all of the overpaid players stockpiled the years previous and set the team up for any Series crown in 2003. In fact, Ivan Rodriguez is the only notable player not acquired by Dombrowski on the Marlins 2003 World Series team.

Dombrowski began his time with his current team, the Tigers, in 2002. The woeful Tigers had not made the playoffs since 1987 when Dombrowski was named president and CEO in 2002. After another subpar season from then GM Randy Smith, ownership named Dombrowski the new GM of the Tigers in 2003. His first year seemed to be a step in the wrong direction as the team lost a record 119 games, however they were able to win at least 70 games each of the next two years as Dombrowski was able to rebuild the team by rebuilding the farm system and adding supplemental talent through trades and free agency. His efforts came to a peak last season as the pitching heavy Tigers won 95 games on their way to the World Series.

What makes Dombrowski the best is not necessarily the fact that he his teams have won. If this were the only telling factor, I would be a bigger fan of Walt Jocketty than of say Terry Ryan and this is not completely the case. What makes Dombrowski the best is his aggressive and versatile approach. Each situation he has been thrust into has been unique and accordingly he utilized a unique strategy to manufacture success. Whether it is patiently waiting for drafted talent to emerge or quickly adding free agent talent to win now, Dombrowski has shown that he can certainly do it all.

The idea for this article comes from today's deadline to sign June draft picks and the reported contract agreement between the Tigers and their 1st rounder Rick Porcello. This is the 3rd out of the last 4 years that Dombrowski's Tigers have signed an amateur talent to a ML contract. In 2004 the Tigers gave Justin Verlander a $4.5 million ML contract along with a $3.12 million bonus. They followed this up with a ML contract worth as much as $7 million with a $3.55 million bonus for Andrew Miller in 2006. What makes Porcello's contract most remarkable is not the guaranteed money nor the bonus that appears to be 3 times higher than the slot value, but the fact that he is only 18 years old. Both Verlander and Miller were college pitchers around 21 years old and fairly polished on draft day. It will be interesting to follow Porcello's career and quick jump to the ML.

This tendency of Dombrowski's Tigers to aggressively draft and sign the players he drafts is something that is lacking within MLB. Due to the new draft rules this year teams have to have their draft picks signed by midnight tonight or they lose the rights to sign that player. Many teams have yet to sign their top round picks and this year looks to have by far the highest number of top 5 round picks go unsigned. The most notable are the top 3 picks of the draft that are all yet to sign. It is difficult to understand why a team would draft a player that they would not be able to sign. At least our beloved Indians were able to draft a player that was easily signed weeks ago. From all this it is important to know that if you are smart enough, brave enough, and willing enough to start something you must also be smart enough, brave enough and willing enough to follow through and finish it *cough*Indians*cough

Thursday, August 2, 2007

Deadline Has Come and Gone...

There is plenty to discuss as the dust settles from the passing of yet another non-waiver MLB trade deadline. It seems every year the deals that don't get done are as worthy of debate as those that did. This year is different, however, mainly due to the efforts of John Schuerholz. Yes, due to the 2 trades completed earlier today and yesterday the Braves have to be considered the dominating winners at this years deadline. Without further introduction I will outline this years biggest winner and biggest loser at the deadline along with analysis of the deals that were made, or weren't...

Biggest WINNER:
Atlanta Braves: The Braves gm John Schuerholz will surely dominate the trade headlines for the next day or so as the Braves were able to snag 2 very important pieces of their eventual world series run (more on that later). The first and flashiest of the deals sees Texas slugger Mark Teixeira along with 36 year old middle reliever Ron Mahay moving to Atlanta in exchange for the Braves 3 best prospects and 2 others. Shuerholz was able to capitalize in a big way on the league wide trend of overvaluing prospects. Teixeira makes the Braves especially dangerous as the only hole in lineup with the 9th best OPS in the majors is their league worst play at 1B by OPS. The Braves now have arguably the best lineup in the NL. Now as for the pitching, the Braves were able to add Octavio Dotel to the backend of their bullpen in exchange for the struggling Kyle Davies.


Biggest Loser:
Pittsburgh Pirates: To be completely honest, I thought that this was a prank when I first saw this deal being reported just minutes after the deadline. I mean why would the team with the second worst record in the game and a 38 million dollar payroll trade a young promising OF for a an old overpaid middle of the rotation starter. On one level I understand the idea of adding the value of an experienced SP to anchor a young and inexperienced staff. However, Morris is far too expensive and not nearly talented enough to make this trade worthwhile. Jim Rome put it best when he explained the irrelevance of Morris' success in PNC park by begging the question who do you think he was facing?

Tribe Outlook:
The Indians were only able to put together one deal before the deadline and that was the acquisition of former Indian Kenny Lofton. This deal will benefit the Indians on a number of levels. Most importantly Mark Shapiro was able to get great value back for offensively minded C prospect Maximilano Ramirez. Lofton will add the spark to the tribe that is necessary for them to push into the playoffs and behind. The intangibles that Lofton brings to the table are vast. He will bring leadership and enegry to a young and sometimes lethargic tribe roster. On the field Lofton will be able to help Sizemore set the table for the tribes mashers, eg. Vic and Pronk. Although I would have liked to have seen the Indians add a backend reliever, and from what I have heard Ben Francisco would have netted one, I understand and respect Shapiro's decision to stand pat. In fact, Shapiro is quoted as saying, "I will never trade an everyday player for a relief pitcher." While I agree with this in principle, sometimes the caliber and abundance of certain types of everyday players can override this rule. In any event, the Indians are in a great position to win the Central and to fight for a World Series title.

MLB Outlook:
It seems to easy a prediction to make, but with the moves made over the deadline the Atlanta Braves and Boston Redsox have each moved themselves to the forefront of their respective leagues. It would not surprise me to the Braves win the East by as comfortable a margin as 5 or more games and beat up on an inferior NL on their way to the series. As for the Redsox, with the Indians and Tigers struggling mightily the last 2 weeks I see no reason for them not to be the AL's World Series representative(as much as it pains me to say it). There is still a lot of baseball left, however, so lets not get too far ahead of ourselves as anything is liable to happen the rest of the year and it probably will...

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

The Mark Shapiro Era

The glory days of the second half of the 1990's that included 2 World Series appearances and 6 playoff runs officially came to end on November 1, 2001 with the resignation of gm John Hart. It was on this day that Mark Shapiro, formerly the Indians director of minor league operations, was named the tribe's next gm. Even though Cleveland had recently enjoyed a run of success nearly unprecedented in its history, the roster was aging and the farm system depleted. In fact, according to Baseball America, the Indians had just the 26th best farm system in 2001 and the 20th best in 2002.

Thus, a rebuild and tough times were ahead.

Shapiro began his professional career in the field of real estate and soon after that obtained his first job in MLB as an assistant in player development in 1992. He was then promoted the following year to director of player development and retained that position for 6 seasons until he was again promoted to assistant gm to John Hart in 1999. As a graduate of Princeton, Shapiro certainly had the mental makeup and prowess to quickly scale the peak of MLB front offices.

Once installed as the 7th Indians gm since 1950, Shapiro chose to rebuild the front office before he could rebuild the franchise. In fact, he had made 14 moves in the front office before opening day 2002, including naming Chris Antonetti and John Mirabelli his assistant gms. By mid-season Shapiro had also fired manager Charlie Manuel and began the search for one that would better fit his style. Immediately at the conclusion of the 2002 season Shapiro announced that Eric Wedge would be the tribe's next manager. These changes laid the groundwork for the fire sale and return to glory that ensued throughout the next few years.

John Hart left Shapiro with an aging and relatively talent depleted roster. In fact of the $95 million payroll that was left under the control on the Indians on November 1, $55 million of it lasted no more than one legitimate season after 2001. Thus, Shapiro was faced with the daunting task of rebuilding a team that currently held little value. His first priority seemed to be to cut cut payroll and remain somewhat competitive. The first step was to part ways with free agents Juan Gonzales and Dave Burba freeing up a total of $16 of salary.

Next, Shapiro began discussing a trade of soon to be Hall of Fame 2B Roberto Alomar. Alomar who made nearly $8 million in 2001 still had 2 more $8 million years left on his contract, but not on the field. In fact, Shapiro had the foresight to know that Alomar's great career had come to an end and that his trade value was peaking. On December 11, 2001 Mark Shapiro finalized a trade that sent Alomar to the Mets for Matt Lawton. Along with this move, Shapiro made a series of other small moves over the next few months concerned with lowering payroll while increasing on field performance. Some of these include the signings of Brady Anderson, Karim Garcia, Steve Woodard, and Rickey Gutierrez (all of whom were eventually let go). He also traded OF Dave Roberts for marginal prospects to free up salary. Now, these moves are nothing remarkable and in fact outside of the salary relief in the Alomar deal, the Indians gained very little in Shapiro's initial moves.

However, Shapiro's success as gm turned significantly in his favor via the trade market starting on June 27, 2002, when he managed to complete one of the 3 most lopsided deals since 2000. The other two are the twins get Liriano, Bonser, and Nathan for Pierzynski and cubs getting Lee in exchange for Choi and a nonamed RP. Shapiro managed to obtain future CF star Grady Sizemore along with quality SP Cliff Lee in exchange for Bartolo Colon. This deal set the stage for the rest of the Indians firesale since one of their most valued assets in Colon had been dealt. According to Baseball America at the time of the trade "once the Indians made the decision to deal Colon for prospects, they couldn't have asked for any more in return." After another successful trade of acquiring Coco Crisp for Chuck Finley, Shapiro made a couple more less than impressive moves, outside of salary relief before the deadline in 2002. He sent Shuey to the dodgers in exchange for two did-miss prospects and Terry Mulholland and he sent Ricardo Rincon to the A's for did-miss prospect Marshall McDougal.

The rebuild was relatively quiet until December 6, 2002 when Shapiro proceeded to engineer yet another lopsided deal. This time he acquired Travis Hafner, yes Pronk, for essentially Einar Diaz, yes a backup catcher. At the time of the trade Baseball America reported that "Indians general manager Mark Shapiro was arrested for grand theft slugger." All joking aside this was one of the most important trades in the rebuilding process. Shapiro had been so successful thus far in turning around the farm system that Baseball America had the tribe's minors ranked 1st in MLB on opening day 2003. Over the course of the next 3 years Shapiro made multiple deals exchanging did-miss specs and other loose change while managing to put together three notable deals, 2 good, 1 bad. As for the good, first the Indians managed to acquire Arthur Rhodes, a valuable rp, for Matt Lawton and second Franklin Gutierrez, Gutz, for hothead Milton Bradely. The bad, was bad, Shapiro managed only to get Jeriome Robertson a SP who's career was over by 2004 in exchange for Luke Scott and Willy Taveras both starters in the present day Houston OF.

Since the tribe was ready for primetime, prior to the 2005 season, Shapiro has only made two deals that significantly affected the ML roster. First, in true blockbuster fashion on January 27, 2006, he sent Bard C, Riske RP, and Crisp OF to Boston in exchange for Marte 3B, Mota RP, Shoppach C, and then sent Rhodes RP to philly to get Michaels for the OF. At the time I was very excited and pleased with this deal and unlike many others I still am. RP's outside of the elite relief ace type, hold little value for a franchise because they are so prevalent. This trade would have been even more in the tribe's favor had Mota not been hurt and horrible while in Cleveland. First off, Crisp and Michaels are nearly identical players over the last two years. Since the trade Crisp has hit .272/.325/.397 and Michaels has hit .270/.326/.400 so if anything Michaels has the slightest of edges at the plate. Defensively they are also quite similar with range being Crisp's only noticeable advantage. The speed that allows for Crisp's range also shows up on the bases where he has stolen 39 bases compared to Michaels 10 since the trade. Bard and Shoppach are washes as each are backup catchers at this point and doing fairly well at it. Now that leaves this deal as Riske and Rhodes in exchange for Mota, Marte, and a RP prospect yet to show his face. Rhodes had a 5.3 era last season in philly and is not pitching this year, sounds like Mota, and Riske is upholding his mid-3 era he held down in Cleveland as a middle reliever. So, to whoever criticizes this deal I have this to say, being offered a high ceiling middle of the order 3B and any kind of RP prospect in exchange for a quality 7th inning guy is an offer no one can refuse.

The next, and currently last, deal that Shapiro has put together is trading minor league star 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and RP Andrew Brown for 2B Josh Barfield. At the time of this trade I was skeptical and I still am. I do not bad mouth this trade for what it is, but more so for what it could have been. I am not one of the fans who wanted to keep Kouz for the future, in fact I was of the opinion that he must be dealt immediately due to his age and lack of ML experience. However, I envisioned Kouz pulling in a closer of some kind to anchor the ailing bullpen. On the other hand, I will never criticize Shaprio for being too aggressive or too quick to pull the trigger. When breaking this deal down I again employ my rule that decent middle RP is of infinite quantity and thus of little value. Not to mention that Brown is 26, out of options to the minors, and yet to remove his rookie status with only 16 career ML innings to date. The only differences offensively between Kouz and Barfield are Kouz' 80 points of slugging in exchange for 12 sbs and 30 points of average for Barfield. Barfield also adds value in the field as a slightly above average 2B, while Kouz' defense is significantly below average at 3B. So, again this deal looks to be in our favor and a good one at that, but maybe not the best use of a minor league 3b who had an OPS of 1.089 last season.

Over the course of his 6 seasons as Indians gm, Shapiro has also excelled at adding talent through the draft. Of the current players on the roster, Shapiro added Ben Francisco in the 5th round in 2002 and Garko in the 3rd round of 2003. He also picked Adam Miller and Jeremy Sowers with his first pick in 2003 and 2004 respectively. The 2004 draft also netted three of the Indians top pitching prospects, Lewis, Lofgren, and Sipp. It is always easy though to criticize a teams draft picks, no matter what sport is being debated.

However, I only have two complaints regarding the draft in Shapiro's 6 seasons. The first complaint is from 2005. In the 42nd round of the 2005 June draft Shapiro went out on a limb and took University of Washington, is that in St. Louis, star RHP Tim Lincecum, a draft eligible sophomore. Lincecum was a top round talent, but basically fell out of the entire draft due to his alleged $2 million price tag coupled with his lack of size and awkward mechanics. Now if Shapiro had what it takes to draft him at that position, he should've had what it takes to cough up the $1.1 million bonus Lincecum eventually demanded. This mistake became evident, when with less than a years experience in the minors Lincecum is 5-2 with a 3.96 era for the woeful SFG.

My second nitpick has to do with this years 1st round pick, 1B Beau Mills. Now my criticism here is similar to the Kouz trade. I have nothing against Mills and see him as an elite ML bat. However, he plays little to no defense and reminds me too much of Travis Hafner who still has a significant portion of his career ahead of him. I would have much rather seen the pick used for a high ceiling guy like Brackman SP from NCST or Rick Porcello, a highschooler from NJ. Mills should be a fast track guy with a live bat, so I have no problem with what the pick is, just with what it could have been.

Now at this point in my ramblings I have more than established that Shapiro is one of the best at adding prospects and getting unbelievable value in what I call negative trades, trades that hurt the ML roster immediately(eg. veterans for prospects). However, Shapiro has only made one successful positive(eg. prospects for veterans) move during his time as Indians gm. I do not see the last trade as a positive trade because each player is still a work in progress and basically an even handed move as far as future and current value. The one positive move that I do praise is his signing of Kevin Millwood prior to the 2005 season. Millwood ended up leading the AL in era and propelling the Indians to a 93 win season and their first playoff race since before Shapiro took over.

All of this information leads me to make a rough comparison of Shapiro to another recent ML gm, Chuck Lamar. Lamar was the gm of TB from 1998 through 2005 and always seemed to have the best prospects, yet his teams were never able to get the job done at the ML level. The Shapiro Indians at this point in time very much resemble these devil rays, but have had some more success. Thus, Shapiro has just under a week to establish his legacy as a complete gm, much like Dave Dombrowski of the tigers, by making a positive deal, prospects for veterans, such as the ones I've proposed about a week ago. Some sort of deal is necessary to push this team into the playoffs and beyond.

Thus concludes my complete history of the Indians since Mark Shapiro was named gm in 2001.

GO TRIBE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

We can't hit LHP

Thats all I've got on the tribe today, 1 run off Buerhle today and we lose 5-1. Westbrook is struggling as well, but when you cannot score at all against a LHP you aren't gonna win. Let's add a guy who can hit LHP.

*cough*Teixera*cough*

Too bad Garko is hitting like a fiend with a pinch hit two run homer to tie the game last night in the 9th and then a basehit to win the game in the 11th. I really wish we didn't already have 3 DH/1B in the starting lineup everyday, making Teixera hard to obtain. On another note, Steve Phillips from ESPN believes that as many as 3 big name closers including Lidge from the Astros and Cordero from Washington will be moved before the 31st, for whatever thats worth. That has to be the top priority this deadline.

Team One South Showcase

Last week this time I was attending Team One's South showcase at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia. Alongside 55 college and 3 Major League scouts I was privileged to watch some of the best high school talent the class of 2008 has to offer. The showcase was an extremely well run 3 day event consisting of full tryout for each player(IF/OF, running, BP, pitching) on the first day followed by 8 games (2 games for each of the 8 teams compiled). As far as the tryout I was concerned I was only able to catch the tail end of it, but boy am I glad I did as the top player for me really shined here. The only two minor flaws with the showcase were concerning the rosters of the teams as some players were misnumbered and others, a couple from my shortlist, weren't even in attendance.

After much ado about nothing I would like to present my top 5 from the event. 3 of my top 5 also made Team One's top ten for the event, so I must be doing something right. As a side note because of other obligations I was only able to see about two thirds of the players enough to pass judgment on them.

Anyways here goes.

5. Pablo Bermundez a LF from Miami Springs, FL checks in at the number 5 spot. Bermundez had good size and strength at 5'11" 175 lbs. He also demonstrated average speed and a slightly above average arm in LF. His overall defense in the OF was lacking for me as he misjudged a couple well hit balls in the game I saw. Regardless of his fielding faux pas Bermundez more than made up for it with his baseball sense, his approach at the plate and most importantly his attitude. His performance at the plate was nothing to sneeze at but neither was anyone else's, except my top guy, in this the first game of the tournament. Bermundez did show a smooth swing and good bat speed in his two at bats. However, what made Bermundez stand out over a couple other good players was his attitude. In these games Team One set it up so that if a player walked they stayed at the plate and an extra player was put on first base. On at four occasions Bermundez was the guy to jump at the chance to be that extra runner. I cannot stress enough the importance of positive makeup when scouting amateur talent and Bermundez really delivered here.

4. Taylor Dugas a CF from Teurlings Catholic, LA is my number 4 player. Dugas is the second of three participants in the showcase's first game to make my list and he is also only one of two players in the top five that was not on my original shortlist of about 10. Dugas is a lefthanded hitting CF who exhibited good speed both on the bases and in CF. He made a couple nice plays in CF and showed off his speed by stealing a base in the first inning. As I have previously mentioned there was a great lack of offense in the first game and I do not attribute that to the pitching as it was fairly ordinary. Dugas, however broke through with a couple of smashed base hits. He has a very quick, and short swing that generates a great deal of bat speed and seemed to be more a slap type hitter. With a swing like that Dugas is a basehit machine, but for me lacked much power due to his propensity for ground balls and low line drives. However, his solid defense in CF, good speed, and ability to make consistent hard contact are more than enough for him to crack this list.

3. Luke Erickson a LHP from Richmond, VA is the only pitcher to make my top 5. Erickson's team played the first game of the second day(second game overall) which started early at 8:30 am o'clock. However, the early start did not keep the scouts away as Chappell field at Emory University had its largest attendance of the showcase for this game. Now one cannot appendictally state as to whether or not the scouts were out in full force to see the top pitcher in the tournament, but regardless they came in droves. As I settled into my customary seat atop the bleachers on the firstbase side I learned from one of the spectators that the only pitcher in the showcase I came to see would be throwing the third and fourth innings. It was definitely worth the wait as, to me, he was all that he was advertised. Erickson a 6'3" 185 lbs lefty demonstrated an impressive fastball and offered solid secondary offerings with his curve and change. The fastball seemingly sat in the low 90's(91-93) with good arm side movement for the entirety of his two inning stint, although I was not privy to a radar gun to know for sure. His curveball was hard and possessed late, sharp break making it a worthy pitch. His change although thrown sparingly, if at all outside of warming up showed some depth and was a usable offering. The two negatives from his outing were his inability to keep the ball down while in the stretch and the fact that the last two batters he faced were able to time up the fastball and drive lazy line drives to the gaps. Even still, look for Erickson to be a top rounder in next years June draft.

2. Vickash Ramjit a 3B from Miami, FL is a huge athlete, period. At 6'4" and 200 lbs Ramjit has great size and strength. Even more remarkable is the amount of athleticism pilled into that big frame. He definitely is not a burner but has average to slightly above average speed at the Major League level. He possesses a strong and accurate throwing arm from third along with the hands and quickness to hold down the hot corner. Being one of the names on my shortlist before attending the showcase, Ramjit immediately caught my eye due to his size and overall physical maturity when compared to the other players in attendance. Ramjit, however, was buried deep in the order and the tools I had come to see could not be displayed until the bottom of the third inning. It was in the top of the second, however, that I became sold on this guy. A slow roller was hit his way at third by an above average runner. The ball made it maybe 60 feet down the line before Ramjit came flying in, barehanded the ball, and gun the guy easily at first. It was his impression of Chavez of Rolen at third and not the comparison to A-rod at the plate that did it for me. He delivered at the plate as well. He is a very patient hitter that waits for the right pitch to drive. The ball really jumped off his bat as he tattooed a liner that happened to hit the second baseman in the glove. He has a line drive swing and the balance at the plate to drive the ball to all fields. He definitely is yet another example of why you cannot scout performance, but must scout tools as he was 0-2 at the plate with a pop out to short right field. Regardless, Ramjit possesses many tools as an all-around player and athlete so look for him on the first day of next years June Draft.

1. William Scott a RF from Kell, Georgia did make my shortlist and wasn't even on my radar, but I am definitely glad I got to the park early enough before the first game to see his tryout in RF. There were a handful of catchers being tried out as I settled into my seat and got my bearings for the first time at the showcase. I went through the roster that was in the program to cross reference my shortlist, as this game included half of that list. Unfortunately I quickly became aware that a couple of the guys I came to see were not in attendance. This disappointment did not last long as I began to watch some of the OFs tryout their skills in RF. The first couple players were solid defenders and I was happy to see Bermundez show well in the field, but it was the last player that was the most intriguing. He was noticeably different in two ways. First, he was wearing green a different color than the rest of the players who were all from the white and black teams that were going to play that evening. More importantly his throws were not two hopping the third baseman like the other OFs, in fact, time and time again Scott his the third baseman in the chest with his throws that did not vary between 3 and 5 feet off the ground the entire time. Sure he was a bit lazy in the field and he did dog a couple balls he should've caught, but he was able to makeup for those attitudes(no pun intended) later on in the game. At that point I frantically search for the name of Mr. 16 green and took down some notes. Being from the green team, I thought that he was simply finishing up his tryout, but I was surprised and excited to see that he would be playing for the black team that night. Scott had little opportunity to impress in the field outside of a routine play or two, but he was able to shine at the plate. After a couple of pitches I could tell that Scott had a well balanced approach and could generate a ton of bat speed. In fact, after he had fouled off one of the many balls as he patiently awaited his pitch , I turned to the guy next to me and said, this kid can really hit, hes going to smash one right here. Sure enough right on cue, Scott smashed the next pitch deep into the left-center gap. Due to the rules installed for equality of 5 and only 5 at bats per half inning and due to the lack of light at 9:oo pm o'clock, Scott was denied a second at bat. However, he did repeatedly ask his coach if he couldn't get another at bat as he was the only guy from his team not to get two. The coach responded with something like, you already got your double, and Scott just smiled.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Cleveland Indians Trade Deadline

For the first time in years there is a team in Major League Baseball that has the means to trade for basically anyone that could bolster their playoff roster. The Cleveland Indians most certainly have what it takes to put together a blockbuster deal. The farm system is booming filled primarily with outfielders and starting pitching and it is these prospects that can be moved to fill the current gaping holes in the Indians 25 man roster.

There are basically three holes that the tribe needs to plug in order to put themselves over the top. The first of these is most obviously the bullpen. Outside of the make believe success of Joe Borowski and his 26 saves in 29 chances and the actual success of Rafael Betancourt's 37 Ks and stuningly low 3 walks, the Indians bullpen consists of Cabrera's erratically electric arm and other unproven rookies, some as old as 30. In fact, the Indians rank 19th in the ML in ERA with a bullpen ERA of 4.06 and 18th in BAA from the bullpen at .253. Even more telling is the fact that the Indians have used their bullpen more than only 4 other teams at 255 IP.

Now, you might be thinking well thats accountable to the great SP, well, not so much. In those same two categories for SP the Indians rank 20th and 24th respectively, which leads me to next point. If the Indians are going to win it all this year they are going to need to add another top tier SP to follow the 1-2 punch of CC and Fausto. The 4 man combination of Sowers, Lee, Byrd, and Westbrook simply has not gotten it done this year nor had I really expected it to. To me before the season the rotation was basically a one man show. Like every other tribe fan, I was anxiously awaiting the complete emergence of CC as an ace and boy has he delivered so far. I also was hoping to see the Fausto Carmona I new existed, the one with an electric fastball and even better sinker and slider. Even after arguably the worst rookie season for a rp ever, once blowing 4 saves in 5 days, I still had faith in the young man's unbelievable stuff. He too has achieved way beyond even my optimistic expectations.

As for the other four they basically are the types of pitchers that hit their spots and create lots of (sometimes) weak contact, thus relying greatly on the defense behind them. This becomes a problem when the SS is more suited for 3B and often times the corner outfields are filled with guys of similar limited range. Needless to say I had little to no expectations for the soft throwers that round out the rotation.

The third whole for the tribe is a true defender at one of the corners who can really mash on LHP. Usually with the Indians at the trade deadline the discussion stops right there as it is usually unlikely not only that they make a deal to fill a hole, but even that they have what it takes to make a deal like that.

However, this year is different.

From what I have heard and read the Indians can most easily obtain what they need in two deals. The first deal would concern the bullpen and the hitter and would consist of moving many marquee guys including Glaus, I mean Marte, Garko, and other lesser known prospects such as Trevor Crowe, John Drennen, and Brian Barton. These three outfielders are the most expendable prospects for the tribe do the very over-crowded OF. In fact, the Indians currently have 7(Choo, Nixon, Michaels, Sizemore, Gutz,Frisco, Dellucci) who have started significantly for the Indians in the last year or so. This makes those three the most logical and valuable players that can be moved.

All this buildup leads to this in a deal to Texas the Indians could acquire 1B Mark Teixera and RP Akinori Otsuka. Otsuka would provide the experience and consistency so sorely needed in the pen and Teixera would greatly improve the defense at 1B and provide a huge threat against LHP. In fact, Teixera's career line against lefties is .309/.385/.562, not too shabby. These two would come at a hefty price though. It would probably at least take Crowe, Marte, Garko and one of the other two OF prospects, but it would definitely be worth it for a chance to win it all. The likelihood of this deal is not very high due to the success of Garko and on the GM's insistence on standing pat, but a possibility as the Rangers are looking to get younger and to get rid of Teixera's huge salary.

The second deal that could potentially make the Indians a world champion revolves around a great, but much lesser known SP. His name is Erik Bedard and he is the ace of the woeful Baltimore Orioles. It is rumored that the Orioles my be looking to move Bedard as the are unlikely to be able to resign him at the end of his current deal. Bedard is certainly the type of guy that can put the tribe over the top. He is leading the American League in Ks and currently has an 8-4 record and a 3.22 era for a team that is currently 10 games under .500. I cannot imagine that the Orioles could pass on an offer of Lee and Sowers for Bedard. Lee, although having a horrible year, has produced quite well in the past and could succeed with a change of scenery to a non-contender and Sowers is a very young pitcher that has the makings to be a very good middle of the rotation guy but is just not quite ready for primetime yet. Sowers' departure is of little concern in the longterm as the Indians would have three frontline starters all under 30 and Adam Miller and Chuck Lofgren who promise to be similar to the new big three in just a couple of years.

There you have it through two major deals the Indians could turn themselves into a virtual lock to win it all without making much sacrifice for the future. It will be interesting to see how the next two weeks pan out as the Indians continue their chase of the Tigers for the division lead and their chase for help as the deadline approaches.